ACC Ltd, the countrys largest cement producer, whose volume market share witnessed an 8-year peak at 13.2% in FY05, has been witnessing a decline since. Its share is currently at 11.8%, said J Radhakrishnan, an analyst with India Infoline, in a report.
Ambuja Cement Ltds volume market share also has dropped from 11% in FY07 to 10%.
Grasims fortunes have dipped as well; its volume market share was 10.50% in FY04, which slipped to 9.72% in FY07 and further to 9.47% in FY08. UltraTech Cement Ltds market share also dipped from 10.47% in FY04 (it was called L&T cement then) to 10.15% in FY07, and 9.15% in FY08.
The Indian cement industry, in terms of revenue, was worth Rs 54,000 crore in FY08. The industry produced 131.20 million tonne cement from April-December 2008. Cement capacity as on December 31, 2008 stood at 206.96 million tonne.
Industry watchers believe that if the top four players dont work towards regaining their market share, then post 2010, their combined share could drop to 34%. The share of mid-large players (like Shree Cement, Madras Cement, India Cement) will remain about 36%, small players (like My Home Industries Ltd, Orient, Binani) will hold about 24%, and new players (like Reliance, Murli Agro, JSW Cement) will account for 6% of the market, say industry watchers.
This will happen if the respective players announced capacities come on stream in time.
Sourav Mallik, executive director, Kotak Investment Bank, said, Assuming that the industry grows at 8% per annum, the Holcim Group as well as the Aditya Birla Group will have to add additional capacities of about 3-3.5 million tonne each year. This will entail an investment of approximately Rs 1,400-1,800 crore per year for each company. This investment will be required to maintain their market share, as they are currently close to full capacity utilisation.
Incidentally, ACC plans to expand capacity to 30.4 mtpa and ACL to 25 mtpa by 2010. Similarly, Grasim, including UltraTech, plans to hike capacity to 48.8 mtpa. This will take the capacity of the top four players taken together to about 104.2 mtpa, against the expected total capacity of 300 mtpa by 2010.
The capacity expansion announced by the top four in percentage terms is less compared to others. Also, these players are not doing any acquisition currently, which has started impacting their market share, said a Mumbai-based investment banker.